Stock Market Investment Ideas

Obama Wins

 

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Obama Wins

Monday, November 5, 2012

 

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by Jason Cimpl

 

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There is a 94% chance you’re going to read that headline on Wednesday morning.

 

That’s because the direction of stocks has been a solidly reliable predictor of prior presidential elections.
 

For Mitt Romney, this is grim news indeed.
 

Though I’ve discussed the market’s ability to predict elections before, here’s a quick review: 
 

When the stock market sported gains in the two months before the election, the incumbent was re-elected 15 of 16 times. Conversely, when the stock market declined during that time, the opposition won 10 of 12 races. The combined data, which InvesTech Research compiled, shows that the stock market predicted the next president a mind-blowing 25 of 28 times (89.2%).
 

Of course every presidential race is different, although they usually come down to a few key issues. This year, the hot topic was hands down the economy, lending the "market return theory" some additional credence to its predictive ability.
 

It seems that the market even predicted just how close the race would be, too.
 

 

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On October 31, the S&P 500 Index closed at 1,412, a mere 0.4% higher than its 1,406 close on August 31. Accordingly, and by the tightest of margins, the market anticipates the people will re-elect president Obama on Tuesday.

 

Though it’s impossible to guarantee tomorrow’s result, the market clearly has an expectation. And it’s not Romney.

 

Admittedly, the tally was close. Further complicating results this year was a two-day market shutdown following Hurricane Sandy.
 

Despite the potential for inaccuracy this time around, stock returns foretell that an Obama victory tomorrow is highly likely, if not assured. However, that outcome isn’t bad news for investors. Despite the gridlock among the White House, Senate and House on political agendas, the expected future presidential and Congressional combination has treated investors kindly.
 

[In fact, a Democratic president and split Congress pairing has been incredibly profitable for investors. CLICK HERE to read about the gains to expect over the next four years ]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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